Top 10 Rules For Betting-Short Term Investing In NFL-CFB And College Basketball

Systematically betting on NFL, College Football, College Basketball, and some NBA allows you to make a decision without having to hear anyone else’s mouth.
You can always win and have money in your pocket to avoid “Hard Times” in the “American Dream” Dusty Rhodes sense.

Over a 15-year period with my brother who I met at work in Carlsbad California: Victor Cappello; have come up with a process of 243 rules of betting. The result of those rules are we paid for Vegas trips including our legendary 4 days in Vegas for the start of the 2010 NCAA tournament where we won over 90% of our bets and did a crazy parlay that we only needed

Texas to inbounds the ball and we would have been retired. Still since I hedged the parlay we still with $150,000, a lot of laughs, and a ridicolous memory forever

However, that is the “beauty” and “fun” of betting like sociologist; you enjoy the madness and craziness of human nature. Even though it is Sports gambling; it is very clean compared to other forms of entertainment these days.
You have to have a system or code you live by; not only to make money betting but have fun and laugh while you are doing it. Each part of the country is different. Therefore outcomes vary.

I am originally from Los Angeles California and spent 20 years in Florida and now I have been back in Southern California for the past 12 years. I spent to years in Boston, 2 years in New York.

Victor is originally from Buffalo, we met in Carlsbad California and we have used our knowledge and sports together for a million laughs over the last decade and a half.

Also, we have paid rent and Christmas presents with our picks. Here are your top 10 Sports gambling rules and remember come up with a few of your own and let us know.

1. Never bet on your own team. This is straight out of economics. Economics is 40% math and 60% in psychology. Because of the emotional attachment, propaganda in the newspaper and TV you always think that your team will perform better than you think when times are going good and worse when times are going bad. Especially if you have a job and a wife or girlfriend or kids you are never going to put the pieces to pick the right side of a game
2. Never Bet Without During Your Research!; Read the local “beat writers”; talk to fans at the games that really know what they are talking about, read the preseason magazines but do not pay attention to any of the predictions: make your own. Always know what happened the last time the teams played. This removes some negative variables that could effect a positive outcome.

3. If you lose it is not because of “bad luck” it is because you picked the wrong team; No Such Thing As A “Bad-beat” The reason you can make money consistently in Sportsbetting is that coaches like Bill Belicheat, Nick Satan and Andy Reid have scripts for the 1st 20 plays of every game and map out how the season will go. Therefore after watching games your whole life you can pick up on patterns and predict how players and teams will react.

It is a natural human reaction to try to make yourself better ; that is the reason 90% of people do not want to admit that they are wrong.

However, like in economics, the “opposite of every truth is also true”. Betting uses the mathematical law of “opposites”. For every coach like Andy Reid there are new coaches like Anthony Lynn of the San Diego Chargers right now in 2019. I am sure he is trying to do the same things as Belicheat and Reid . As a result you get random outcomes that you can consistently bet against; depending on the situation. I have been told by people that work at NFL teams front offices that even though it is “counter-intuitive” there is not a consistent book of best practices for every team.

You can tell which team has a good management system and which do not. The league Commissioner makes sure the “goose that is laying the golden eggs” PR and marketing do not get affected by the different management styles. Each NFL team for example has 4 built in wins.Therefore after each outcome reflect and think why you got the pick right or wrong

“Sure, you can complain to the refs, or even complain about the refs… but if you’re competing in any tournament for the big prizes, you’ll always have the Cobra Kai’s of the world who don’t care about playing a clean game.”

That’s why you have to understand how the games are played, how your opponents are playing the game, and how you can win no matter what rules they break or what penalties the refs do or don’t call” as Oren Klaff states

4. Never Bet More Than 25% Of Bank Roll: If you were psychic you would know the Lottery numbers. Because of evolution and coping mechanisms we overestimate decisions. So no matter how much you think a team will win; to keep money in your bankroll to have fun never bet more than 25% of your bankroll. 52% is break even and 70% is the goal to attain.

5. Never Parlay Games Or Get Involved In Teasers: “Salesmen think short-term and businessmen think long term” the variables are too many to be a good business decision pure entertainment is another story. The probability of a favorable outcome math wise has the least variables and co-varables. When you do a parlay you are added a variable that is designed to eliminate your profit and free cash flow.

6. Bet The Moneyline: Do not get killed by extra point missed. Again from a math perspective you eliminate some variables and co-variables that may effect a positive outcome. If you are not feeling a clear edge buy the point. What “buy the point” means is if the line is -3.5 you pay to subtract the point to get it below the key number of 3. Key numbers in football are 3,7,10,17 , 21 and so forth. A combination of scores you see every week and that 3 points for field goals and 7 for touchdowns.

7.Bet The Coaches Not The Players Coaches especially in College control the game. What are the coaches goals? Does he care about bowl games; and wears out his teams getting reps for the next season? Does he only care about the season regular season division title like Bill Self and lose early in the tournament? Is the coach like Belicheat where the full offensive and defensive schemes are not in until the playoffs? is there “bad blood” between the coaches?

Big debate if you can predict turnovers ? New England has always been great at protecting the ball and we have made a lot of money picking the under based on that and Belicheats coaching philosophy.

8) Myth Lines Are Made For Betting On Both Sides & Any Statistic Is Useful “Lines are lies” Lines are made to make money. If the lines makers can get 80% of the people to bet the wrong team “they” love it. I have a client who does analytics for a major league baseball team and will not take any NFL clients
and works for a major league baseball team that has won a World Series using her analytics formula and analysis.

She is the smartest person I have ever met. She is a mathematician-. She states analytics does not work in football because mathematically there are too many variables in football. Sports books are not regulated like Robinhood or E-trade. As a result we have no idea really what exactly are the flows of cash.

So logic will tell you that the lines are in the best interest of the Casino, Sportsbook, and Hotel conglomerate not you.

Sportsbetting is like shopping for Groceries ; you to Costco ; Target, Walmart , neighborhood grocer like Albertson’s or Ralphs…always get the best “number” during live stream we reference https://vegasinsider.com/nfl/ …they list like 7 places

You have to monitor the spread from monday morning early and then shop around if you dont like the early spread then just wait till you get what you want to your liking.

9) Stop Betting If You Are Not Laughing All The Time, Having Fun And Helps You Escape From Reality

10) Use The Same Logic And Process For Investing In Stocks, Businesses And In Products In Betting. Value is value. My process is this

1. Research
2. Use math to identify the situation
3. Eliminate as many co-varibles as possible
4. Rigorously apply logic

If you have information that the masses do not have then go for it; put money down.

10. A -The same level of organization

My process is this (Decision Science Used By Fortune 500 companies

1. Research
2. Use math to identify the situation
3. Eliminate as many co-varibles as possible
4. Rigorously apply logic

If you have information that the masses do not have then go for it; put money down.

10. B- “Avoid recency bias ”

Reading the Economist this this morning” in general, most successful sports bettors have a winning percentage between 53% and 55%.”

59% is “sharp”/ 70% Elite…59% you can live in Vegas

This may not sound like a big difference, but it can make a significant impact on the overall profitability of a sports bettor over the long term. It’s important to keep in mind that even the most successful sports bettors will still experience losing streaks, so managing your bankroll and avoiding big losses is crucial to success in sports betting.

Why “Hawthorne Effect” so important …having an audience, being “real” making real determination of the “reasons” for the losses improves percentage by 10 to 20%

So if you are at 53% — using the Hawthorne Effect gets you to 73% ; by executing the process. Highest level in Probability Theory is 80%.

According to high end Military Classified surveillance tracking 8% of the High level college — Professional Sports is “rigged https://www.usintegrity.com/. “clear and obvious manipulation” term the Ex General used.

Only way to get to 80% is to “predict the manipulation”

Behavioral economics, explained

Which is “behavioral economics”

“Behavioral economics combines elements of economics and psychology to understand how and why people behave the way they do in the real world. It differs from neoclassical economics, which assumes that most people have well-defined preferences and make well-informed, self-interested decisions based on those preferences.” Per University Of Chicago School Of Economics

“self-interested decisions based on the individual preferences” as an MBA the author of this article would change the sentence to.

The concept of regression to the mean was first discovered by the statistician and sociologist Sir Francis Galton. As part of his research, Galton observed that tall parents tended to have children who were shorter than them, whereas short parents often had children who were taller than them.

Based on this, Galton developed the principle of regression to the mean, which states that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. In other words, if something extremely unexpected happens, it is likely to be followed by something that’s more aligned with statistical projections or expectations.

We have a tendency to overreact to results in the short term and use those outcomes to make long term decisions, ignoring the reality of regression to the mean. In particular, we tend to ignore the role of luck and timing when evaluating extreme early outcomes.

While is it is important how Casinos just come up with lines just as important the history behind the lines.
The modern line has it’s roots in Lefty Rosenthal. He is the inspiration for the Movie Casino.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenthal You can read his full Wikipedia here. He eventually started the “Line institute” who sold lines to Casino’s. And then the Bookmaker at the Casino creates the final line based on his research.

As a result rule #2 of betting after rule #1 do not bet your own team is do your research. Any question feel free to reach out to our twitter handles www.twitter.com/josuevizcay @cnolan

Financial and math terms such as
*Arbitrage- Buying and selling similar securities
*Return to mean
*Law of opposites
People have never gotten rich with Technical Analysis but has gotten rich selling it
Qualitative Fundamentals to Consider
There are four key fundamentals that analysts always consider when regarding a company. All are qualitative rather than quantitative. They include:
* The business model:
* Competitive advantage:
* Management:

• Fundamental analysis involves the consideration of all things that could affect the price of a stock such as corporate earnings, product developments, political considerations such as laws and regulations, corporate governance, accounting issues, etc.
• Technical analysis involves the interpretation of patterns on charts that show the changes of prices over time.

While is it is important how Casinos just come up with lines just as important the history behind the lines.
The modern line has it’s roots in Lefty Rosenthal. He is the inspiration for the Movie Casino.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenthal You can read his full Wikipedia here. He eventually started the “Line institute” who sold lines to Casino’s. And then the Bookmaker at the Casino creates the final line based on his research.

Financial and math terms such as
*Arbitrage
*Return to mean
*Law of opposites
People have never gotten rich with Technical Analysis but has gotten rich selling it
Qualitative Fundamentals to Consider
There are four key fundamentals that analysts always consider when regarding a company. All are qualitative rather than quantitative. They include:
* The business model:
* Competitive advantage:
* Management:

• Corporate Governance:
• Fundamental analysis involves the consideration of all things that could affect the price of a stock such as corporate earnings, product developments, political considerations such as laws and regulations, corporate governance, accounting issues, etc.
• Technical analysis involves the interpretation of patterns on charts that show the changes of prices over time.
• Contrarian meaning — The meaning of CONTRARIAN is a person who takes a contrary position or attitude; specifically : an investor who buys shares of stock when most others are selling and sells when others are buying. We call it on the Podcast :”going the other way”. The job of the Sports Book is to make money. As a result after watching so many years of football you can use Pattern Recognition to identify when you can use “Going into business with Vegas” to monetize the circumstances and enjoy the game you are watching.
• Pattern recognition is the automated recognition of patterns and regularities in data. It has applications in statistical data analysis, signal processing, image analysis, information retrieval, bioinformatics, data compression, computer graphics and machine learning.

Find more information on our other video and long form articles on our website linktr.ee/esbcpodcastnetwork

Reference for Podcast Episodes
Evidence is defined as information and events that can be proven
1) Video evidence with corroboration of the information
2) Contemporaneous documentation with corroboration
3) Eye witness testimony with several sources that corroborate the eye witness testimony
4) Probability theory where variables are eliminated to a logical conclusion and a 20 % “luck factor” is added to the process

Anti-Social Personality Disorder

1) Lack Of remorse
2)Frequent lying
3) Lack Of Empathy
4) Superficial Charm
5) Lack Of Positive Emotions
6) Distorted sense of Self
7) Constant source of new sensations

Evidence

1) Video evidence with corroboration of the information
2) Contemporaneous documentation with corroboration
3) Eye witness testimony with several sources that corroborate the eye witness testimony
4) Probability theory where variables are eliminated to a logical conclusion and a 20 % “luck factor” is added to the process

5) Rule of thumb you put less $$$ or 50% on totals than the side …

• Other maxims
• You can not predict turnovers
• In College Football and NFL football if a quarterback can make 3 1st downs with its legs; their team will win 70% of the time. If a really good drop back can make 1 1st down with its legs they increase the winning percentage of their team 20%
• A PHD in math from MIT with a World Series ring advised me that “Analytics does not work in football”. In Finance and Decision Science you eliminate variables and co variables to insure and predict up to an 80% certainty a result. In football up to 60 people can determine the outcome of 1 play. Each team in football have 11 players on the field ; 22 total. Each staff has at least 12 people on the staff for a total of 24. And their are at least 8 refs on the field. So data on the most part is garbage. So “Key statistics” are what you use to determine outcomes in sportsbetting.
• As of 2023 55%of games are won with defense / 45% offense / 15% special — try to win a game with special teams early in the season

References

Thinking in Bets. 2018.

Interference : how organized crime influences professional football. 1989.

Belicheat: the making of the greatest football coach of all time 2019

Author

Josh Abner Vizcay MBA